Thirsk Betting Tip: Cawdor

With all the focus on Aintree there is something strange going on at Thirsk. The official going is ‘good – watering to maintain’, yet the going stick reading is 7.3. For those not familiar with the going stick, it is a measure of the ‘going’ the lower the number the softer the ground. It is not a perfect bit of kit, you cannot compare going readings from course to course, but it is the best we have.

Now the last time the going stick was this low at Thirsk it was 7.8 on the 18th April 2008. Officially that day the going was good to soft. It is fair to assume that today the ground will be riding a deal softer than people expect, especially with all the good weather around. In perhaps a quirk of fate, there was a big sprint handicap that day, won by Stolt. His trainer was Linda Stubbs and it is one of her horses I fancy three years on.

Cawdor spent most of last summer racing in claimers as his handicap mark in the mid-70s was beyond him. He sneaks into the race today off 70 and this grade is within his sphere.

The key to Cawdor is the ground, when racing on good to soft or softer his record is 321162. I have included a win at Hamilton that was on ground officially described as ‘good’, but persistent rain during the meeting meant it was riding much softer, the times confirm this.

Well drawn in stall 12, he is one of the few horses in the field; Northern Bolt is the other, who prefers soft ground. The misleading going report has allowed him to reach 33/1, a price we must exploit.