12th May 2013 | Horse Racing
Beverley Draw Bias: 5f
We analyse the draw bias at Beverley’s five furlong track.
Track: Beverley
Distance: 5 Furlongs
Stalls: Low
Summary: A low draw in stalls 1-3 is advantageous.
Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0
To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.
Conclusion: Stalls 1-3 is an advantage thereafter the wider you are drawn the worse your chances. The peak in stalls 14+ are down to a low sample size.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:26 12th May, 2013 but subject to change
