24th Mar 2011 | Formula 1
Formula 1 Tip: Vitaly Petrov
In the second half of last season the Russian would have won this market. He should continue on his upwards curve in 2011.
Most of the talk pre-season has been around the big 8 and who is going to win the championship. It consists of the drivers from Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes; quite rightly the winner is going to come from them.
It mustn’t be forgotten that there another 16 drivers, trying their best each weekend. Those are the teams that help make F1 the spectacle it is. Thankfully with everyone fawning over the main protagonists the bookmakers have missed a trick down the field.
Coral have released a market on which driver is going to score the most points in the 2011 season, outside of the big 8. At the top of the market is Nick Heidfeld at 2/1. A late replacement for Robert Kubica at Renault, the bookmakers have priced his odds as if he is the talented Pole. Well he isn’t. For starters he will be driving a car that wasn’t designed for him. As we have seen time again, late replacement drivers always struggle to adapt. Secondly if Heidfeld was so good why hadn’t he secured a drive before capitalising on someone’s misfortune? He must be opposed in the betting.
If we look at the second half of last season, from the German Grand Prix onwards, it makes for interesting reading. These were the top point scorers outside of the big 8:
1. Petrov (Renault) 21 points
2. Hulkenburg (Williams) 20 points
3. Barrichello (Williams) 18 points
4. Kobayashi (Sauber) 17 points
5. Sutil (Force India) 12 points
You will see that top of the pile was Russian rookie Vitaly Petrov. His first half of the season was very average but that can be forgiven for someone making their debut in F1. As he got to grips with the car and the challenge, he was actually best of the rest in the second half.
This year he is again in the best car outside the big 8 and will be better for a year’s experience. With Kubica out, more expectation and development will be on the Russian, he should be given a competitive car and allowed to go well. At five times the odds of his team mate Heidfeld he rates a great value bet.
In that list Hulkenburg has since been replaced by a paid-for driver in Pastor Maldonado, this should give Petrov more breathing space in this race for ninth.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 08:06 24th Mar, 2011 but subject to change
