Formula 1: Ante Post Tip: Jenson Button

After the performance he put on in 2011, Sebastian Vettel has to be favourite to do it all again in this year’s Drivers Championship; but at best odds of 11/10 (SkyBet) he should be opposed. The reason for this is that however dominant the German was, we never really know the relative strengths of the top cars until the new season gets underway.

That said, all the early indications are that the field has closed up. “I’m expecting the tightest start to a season we’ve seen for a number of years, “ said Ross Brawn, the Mercedes team boss and the man behind all seven of Michael Schumacher’s world titles.

Red Bull supremo Christian Horner also expects it to be closer this time round and he picked out Jenson Button (7/1 WilliamHill) as probably the greatest threat to his team’s hopes. No great surprise you would think, considering the 2009 world champion finished second last term, even beating the second Red Bull of Mark Webber by 12 points.

Yet the bookies continue to favour Button’s McLaren team-mate Lewis Hamilton in the betting. The younger British driver is just 11/2 (WilliamHill) to take the crown, having finished back in fifth in 2011. Hamilton has the raw speed, but the tactical nous and intelligence of Button brought him 33 points more last time. There is no reason to think that Button has lost that edge.

Another candidate at a similar price is Fernando Alonso (9/1 PaddyPower). With the anticipated struggles at Ferrari, a bet on the Spaniard looks like it would be the worst piece of business imaginable. This is not to be disrespectful to a double world champion, but the scarlet cars seemingly face a fight to even finish above the Mercedes. The re-introduction of a pull-rod front suspension when most others will stick with push-rods looks high-risk at best.

So the big question remains, can McLaren overhaul Red Bull? Force India Tecnhical Director Andrew Green believes that the winner will come from the team that best adapts to the new diffuser regulations. Exhaust blowing is banned in 2012 and teams are set to lose some of their cornering downforce. “One of the keys to this season willbe who copes better without it.”

Jenson Button has shown time and again that he may be the most adaptable man in Formula One. The indications are that the McLaren is a lot closer to the Red Bull, with the reigning holders of the Constructors’ title seemingly having lost some of their mechanical advantage. Vettel has made errors in the past when under pressure; Button may be the man to both apply it and take full advantage.