Everton v Southampton Tip: Rickie Lambert

After scoring four goals in his first five Premier League games, Rickie Lambert has been dubbed the ‘New Grant Holt’. The parallels are obvious; both were prolific in the lower leagues and have carried that form to the top-tier of English football.

Last season Grant Holt scored in 37.5% of the league games he started, if Rickie Lambert were to at least match that strike rate, then he should be a 13/8 chance in the anytime goalscorer market. Yet it’s 10/3 (Stan James) that he scores anytime against Everton this weekend.

Some of the discrepancy is because Southampton are the away team and face an Everton side riding high in the league. The table might suggest a gulf in class but it doesn’t take into account Southampton’s tough fixture list.

We know Nigel Adkins likes his team to play an attacking brand of football. The Saints have scored 9 goals in 5 games, bagging four against Aston Villa last weekend. They carry a substantial goal-threat against any opposition.

We shouldn’t forget Everton’s fine start either, as David Moyes continues to perform miracles on a tight budget. A slight change in tactics, with Marouane Fellaini playing in a more advanced role, has yielded goals but also left his side more vulnerable to counter attacks. Newcastle exploited this weakness 10 days ago and Southampton’s direct football could cause similar problems.

With the match more delicately poised than the odds suggest, the visitors should create goal-scoring opportunities. With Rickie Lambert on such hot run, there is a good chance he takes one. At 10/3 (Stan James) he is great value to score anytime in the match.