26th Feb 2017 | League Cup

EFL Cup Final Preview: Southampton to win

EFL Cup Final Preview: Southampton to win

Southampton have endured negative variance in shooting and save percentages in the league but it’s a different matter in the cup.

The EFL Cup Final is a peculiar contest because it features two teams that have been massively underperforming their shooting metrics in the league. United are the most frequent shooters in the league (17.2 shots per game) yet rank seventh in goal scored. Southampton are also trigger happy in sixth (15.1 shots per game) but 15th in the league for goals.

Neither team is relying on shots from outside of the area either, United have simply been unlucky whilst Southampton have been missing a striker since Charlie Austin’s injury.

These setbacks haven’t stopped them excelling in the cup but I think it’s Southampton who have more upside to their numbers. The Saints have the second lowest save percentage in the league (58%) and therefore suffering negative skews on both sides of the ball.

Peculiarly this hasn’t happened in the EFL Cup. Southampton are yet to concede a goal in the competition and have faced Premier League opposition in every round.

It seems Southampton’s negative skew (or luck?) in the league has been reversed in the cup. That is not to say it will continue along this path at Wembley but the addition of Manolo Gabbiadini at least goes someway to improving their conversion percentages.

To use a cliché, perhaps Southampton’s name is written on the cup. At 19/4 (Ladbrokes) they are the value.

1pt Southampton to win 19/4 with Ladbrokes
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 06:05 26th Feb, 2017 but subject to change

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