18th Jun 2015 | Royal Ascot
Norfolk Stakes Trends
We look at the trends that the last five Norfolk Stakes winners have followed.
The first race on Thursday is another treacherous affair. A field of unexposed two-year-olds makes it difficult. Having looked at the past five winners of the Norfolk, there are a couple of trends that stand out:
Had a break of at least 10 days
No winner in the last 10 years has triumphed returning to the track in less than 10 days. Young horses need to be given time to grow and improve, if they are raced frequently it can blunt their progress. In such a competitive contest the Norfolk favours the fresher horse. You can rule out horses that ran in the Windsor Castle with a fair degree of confidence.
Achieved a Racing Post Rating of at least 90
Unexposed horses are hard to judge by the opposition they beat. Two-year-old maidens can vary in quality and a bad horse can win a bad race. A more accurate measure is the Racing Post’s Rating. This is a handicap rating determined by a horse’s overall performance in a given race with respect to the race level.
Only Radiohead, winner in 2009, arrived at Ascot with an RPR below 90. He had run to a rating of 88 on his last start but was difficult to judge having won a poor novice event at a canter when sent off at odds of 1/10.
Horses that fit both trends:
King Of Rooks Evens William Hill
Log Out Island 11/4 Bet365
French Encore 33/1 BetVictor
Odds correct at time of publishing: 02:19 18th Jun, 2015 but subject to change
