Lay of the Day: Estimate

Whenever the Queen has a runner at Royal Ascot, the horse receives an inordinate amount of coverage. The fact her runner Estimate lines up in the feature race of the day, the Ascot Gold Cup (3.45) just makes matters worse. On form lines, Estimate is a dubious favourite.

Best Racing Post Ratings at 16f+:

Saddler’s Rock 122
Rite of Passage 122
Colour Vision 121
Aaim to Prosper 116
Times Up 115
Altano 114
Earl of Tinsdal 114
High Jinx 112
Simenon 112
Vadamar 111
Last Train 110
Estimate 109
Repeater 109
Number Theory 108
Model Pupil 106
Biographer n/a
Top Trip n/a
El Salvador n/a

The first thing to note is Estimate will have to produce a career best performance to win the race. That is entirely possible as this is only her seventh start, but what she has achieved to date is well below that of her rivals.

Racing Post Rating last time out:

Rite of Passage 117
Aaim to Prosper 116
Earl of Tinsdal 114
Top Trip 114
Altano 112
Biographer 112
Simenon 112
Last Train 110
Estimate 109
Saddler’s Rock 108
Number Theory 108
Model Pupil 106
Vadamar 106
Times Up 105
High Jinx 105
El Salvador 103
Colour Vision 99
Repeater 90

Those backing Estimate will point to her impressive win last time out at Ascot; strictly on ratings it doesn’t make her a world beater. In fact, eight horses recorded a higher RPR on their last starts.

In Estimate we have a horse with potential but she’s not shown enough to make her a worthy favourite.