Coventry Stakes Trends

Royal Ascot is famed for the valuable two-year-old races it hosts, but coming so early in the season, finding the winner can be extremely difficult. Rating unexposed horses with very little form can be a treacherous affair. To help we have looked at the profile of the last five Coventry winners and discuss the patterns they fit.

For each trend we have calculated the actual wins compared to the expected wins. A number greater than 1 means more horses win more than expected, a number lower than 1 means fewer horses win compared to the expected amount. Taking bookmaker margin into account 0.85 is the median value.

All won last time out
Each of the last ten winners arrived at Royal Ascot off the back of a victory. To win the Coventry you already need to have a smart performer so it stands to reason that they have already won.
A/E won last time out = 1.17*(2003 to 2013)
A/E lost last time out = 0.00

Won at Class 4 level or higher
The quality of the field is always high therefore the horse already needs to have displayed a good level of form to be considered for the race.
A/E won at Class 4 level or higher: 0.95
A/E won below Class 4 level: 0.00

Winner at six furlongs or further
The big field ensures that the sprint is run at a furious gallop, suiting horses who already have the stamina to win at the distance.
A/E won at 6f or further: 0.81
A/E failed to win at 6f or further: 0.66

Horses that fit all three trends
Round Two 5/2 Bet365
Air Force Blue 13/2 Bet365
War Department 8/1 Bet365
Buratino 10/1 Bet365
Age Of Empire 20/1 Bet365
Qeyaadah 22/1 Bet365
Beaverbrook 50/1 Bet365