Lingfield Tips: Golden Compass

The draw often plays a big part in races on the straight turf track at Lingfield and high numbers will be favoured in the 7.15 sprint.

Focusing on those drawn in double figures, Golden Compass is an interesting contender. Her last race can be ignored as the race was ruined by a false start and numerous horses under-performed on the re-run.

Previously she ran a cracking race at Newmarket. She finished second, splitting Trojan Rocket and Showboating, both of whom have run well since. More importantly she fared best of those who raced against the nearside rail.

Three horses stuck to the nearside rail and it seemed a big disadvantage. These are the Racing Post Ratings before and after, with their Newmarket run in bold:

The Strig: 74-62-36-69-68
Midnight Rider: 83-83-67-83-86
Golden Compass: 70-69-70-50

As you can see, The Strig ran approximately 32lb below par, whilst Midnight Rider ran 16lbs below his usual performance level. On the face of it Golden Compass’s performance was nothing out of the ordinary (RPR = 70), but she probably ran against a draw bias that depressed her rating by at least 16lbs.

We’ve already excused that RPR of 50 due to a false start, which means she is capable of running to a mark of about 86 based on her Newmarket performance. That would easily be good enough to win a weak class 6 handicap, making her cracking value at 13/2 (William Hill).

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