Lingfield Draw Bias: 6 Furlongs - UPDATE

Track: Lingfield AW
Distance: 6 Furlongs
Stalls: Low

Lingfield re-laid their all-weather track in the autumn of 2012 and, apart from the obvious change in colour, there have been some notable differences in the way it rides.

Lingfield staged its first race on the new all-weather track on 17 October 2012 and since then there has been a marked difference in 6f sprint races.

Actual wins v Expected wins: Old surface
(9/1/08 to 10/8/12)

Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0

In the previous 5 years, the 6f track didn’t exhibit any noticeable draw bias, with the actual number of winners per stall closely matching the expected number of winners.

Actual wins v Expected wins: New surface
(17/10/12 to 5/1/2013)

Since 17 October 2012 the 6f track has been displaying a significant draw bias, with stalls 1-4 winning on average 0.48 times more than expected. That means stalls 1-4 are winning almost 50% more times than they should.

My hypothesis is that the track favours more prominent runners than it used to and this manifests itself as draw bias. Lingfield is a left-handed turning track; low drawn runners are closest to the inside rail and therefore more likely to hold a prominent position during the race.

It should be noted that with only 25 six furlong handicap races on the new surface the sample size is very small, certainly too small to be statistically conclusive. The option is either to avoid Lingfield until there is more evidence, or take this embryonic analysis on board when making your selections.

*UPDATE - 15 Feb 2013*

Actual wins v Expected wins: New surface
(17/10/12 to 14/2/2013)

With 40 handicaps run on Lingfield’s 6f track we have more data to work with but the draw bias still persists. Stalls 1-4 win 29% more times than expected, with stalls 8-12 winning 53% fewer races than expected.

The draw bias isn’t as large as our earlier analysis suggested but it is still prevalent and worth factoring in your decision making process.