Hamilton Tip: Tongalooma

The 4.40 at Hamilton is an interesting example of how the market reacts to wide margin winners. Babich Bay 11/4 (Boylesports) and Tongalooma 4/1 (Bet365) won their last races by seven and six lengths respectively but were achieved in different styles.

Let us look at Babich Bay first. A week ago, he won a six furlong sprint at Hamilton by seven lengths, but there are reasons to question the margin of his victory. Firstly, he ran a time I consider five lengths quicker than he has ever run before. Certainly horses can improve that amount as they develop or find their optimum conditions. The problem is 24 hours earlier he finished third, under near identical conditions at the same track. How can a horse improve that much overnight?

The answer is they can’t. If you examine the race he won, the top three positions were filled by horses who hugged the stand’s rail. There was a big draw bias that day, favouring those horses drawn high. The margin of victory should therefore be downgraded.

Tongalooma was also a wide margin winner at Hamilton but her performance wasn’t unexpected. Since she started racing on soft ground over five furlongs, her record this season is 431421. The speed rating she earned when winning at Hamilton was consistent with her recent performances. Although the victory was gained against moderate company, she raced down the centre of the track and none of her rivals were remotely unlucky.

Having looked into the merits of both victories it is clear that Babich Bay’s was a possible fluke whereas Tongalooma just ran to form. At similar prices, Tongalooma is the most likely to replicate her last run and therefore at 4/1 (Bet365) deserves to be backed.