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1st Jun 2012 | Horse Racing

Epsom Derby Preview 2012

We assess the chances of the nine colts lining up for the Epsom Derby at 4.00 Saturday.

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camelotCamelot – 4/6
The long-time Derby favourite has done everything asked of him. He took the first classic of the season winning the 2,000 Guineas, despite a mile being the bare minimum he needs on pedigree.  He has the highest Racing Post Rating in the field and is the one to beat.


BonfireBonfire – 5/1
Won the Dante at York, a recognised Derby trial, in a quick time. If he hadn’t been hampered in the Criterium International on his last start as a two-year-old he would arrive at Epsom unbeaten.


AstrologyAstrology – 8/1
Was mightily impressive when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester by 11 lengths. Could be even better on a sounder surface and respected.


Main SequenceMain Sequence – 10/1
Earned his place in the line-up after winning the Lingfield Derby Trial to extend his unbeaten record to four. He did exceptionally well to let the favourite get first run on him that day and then make his run against the unfavoured far rail.


Thought WorthyThought Worthy – 16/1
Brother to St. Leger winner Lucarno, his career is taking an identical path. He won the Fairway Stakes at Newmarket on his last start, just like his sibling. Lucarno finished fourth in the Derby and I wouldn’t bet against history repeating itself.


MickdaamMickdaam – 33/1
Having his 10th start, Mickdaam looks exposed. He has now run to a Racing Post Rating of 112 three times in his last four outings. It won’t be good enough to win a Derby but he is tough and could pick up some place money.


Rugged CrossRugged Cross – 66/1
A big price considering he was only beaten one length by Thought Worthy and didn’t have the benefit of a previous run. Looks short of the class needed to win a Derby but could sneak third place if things fall right.


CavaleiroCavaleiro – 66/1
Trying to emulate his sire – Sir Percy and win the Derby for trainer Marcus Tregoning. Unfortunately, he doesn’t look up to the task. On official ratings he is the lowest rated horse in the field and he looked tapped for toe in his Derby Trial.


Minimise RiskMinimise Risk – 100/1
Didn’t enjoy himself at Chester and the sharp turning track of Epsom is equally unconventional. Hard to recommend despite his big odds.

Camelot to win the Derby 4/6 with Paddypower
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 15:49 1st Jun, 2012 but subject to change

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