19th Apr 2013 | Horse Racing
Bath Draw Bias: 5f
We examine the draw bias on Bath’s 5f track.
Track: Bath
Distance: 5f11y
Stalls: Centre
Summary: Advantage being drawn high, stall 8 or above.
Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0
To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.
Conclusion: Bath has a turning uphill 5f track, with a stiff finish but unusually for a turning track the advantage is found being drawn away from the inside rail.
There is no obvious explanation, perhaps horses expend too much energy trying to get a prominent position on the rail and get found out by the stiff uphill finish.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:42 19th Apr, 2013 but subject to change
