2000 Guineas: Van Der Neer

The first classic of the season takes place on Saturday with the 2000 Guineas at 3.50.

Champion two-year-old Dawn Approach heads the betting but at 5/4 he doesn’t appeal. The market knows pretty much everything there is to know about the horse; therefore it is difficult to see where the value lies. He could be a superstar but equally he might not have trained on.

Aiden O’Brien plays a strong hand as to be expected. Son Jospeh has opted to ride Cristoforo Colombo but Breeder’s Cup winner George Vancouver looks a danger now that he has got his ground.

However, i’m dodging all the market leaders and going for Van Der Neer at a price.

On jockey bookings he might look like Richard Hannon’s second string but he hasn’t done much wrong in his short career. His only reverse was a 1.75 length defeat by Kingsbarns in the Racing Post Trophy, excellent form considering the soft ground was against him.

The performance that really excites me was his 0.75 length victory at Lingfield last month. On the face of it, it was an ordinary win considering he was 2/5f in the betting, but almost everything went wrong for him during the race.

He was posted wide and then let the front-runner pull out a six-length lead turning for home. Not many horses would have been able to make up the deficit in such a short distance, especially off a moderate pace.

Clearly a very smart individual, a strongly run mile on a straight course plays to his strengths. With the ground also in his favour, he could run a big race at 25/1 (Betfred).