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26th Apr 2021 | Valspar Championship

Valspar Championship Trends

Valspar Championship Trends

The PGA Tour returns to Florida for the Valspar Championship, formerly the Tampa Bay and Transitions Championship.

The PGA Tour visits Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort for the Valspar Championship this week. An unusual par-71, it has five par-3s and four par-5s.

In 2013 it ranked as the hardest non-major par-71 and it can be treacherous in the wind. The average winning score for the past five years is 10 under par.

Big hitting Gary Woodland triumphed in 2011 but it is not a bomber’s haven. His victory was down to a hot putter; he only hit driver four or five times per round.

These are the stand-out trends from the last 12 years:

Top-60 on tour for adjusted scoring average
Each of the last 13 winners ranked inside the top-60 on tour for adjusted scoring average. Benign conditions led to good scoring in 2011 & 2012 but Copperhead can be a tough test when the wind blows. It isn’t a course that is torn apart by the pros and the better all-round players rise to the top.

Top-60 on tour for par-5 scoring average
To win at Copperhead you must score well on the par-5s. The four man playoff in 2012 finished an aggregate 52-under par, 35 of those shots were gained on the par-5s. 10 of the last 13 winners ranked inside the top-60 for par-5 scoring. 2019 champion Paul Casey ranked 17th.

Top-60 on tour in strokes gained tee-to-green
There is a common theme on the Florida swing; you have to hit quality iron shots and be in control of your ball. Innisbrook is a tough test, like the Honda Classic. 11 of the last 13 champions ranked in the top-60 tee-to-green, 2014 champion John Senden ranked 65th.

Top-60 on tour for approaches from 200+ yards
Working in conjunction with par-5 scoring, players who excel from 200+ yards have a good record at Innisbrook. The last 12 champions ranked 36th on average (on tour) with approach accuracy from this distance. Paul Casey led this metric on tour in 2018.

Players that fit all four trends:
Charley Hoffman
Justin Thomas
Keegan Bradley
Louis Oosthuizen
Ryan Palmer
Viktor Hovland

Charley Hoffman e/w 50/1 with Bet365
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 14:27 26th Apr, 2021 but subject to change

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