Premier League Relegation Betting Analysis

The bookies have decided that the Premier League’s bottom two are doomed. Cardiff are nothing longer than 1/4 (Ladbrokes) for relegation while Fulham are a best price of 1/3 (Boylesports) for the drop. However, the jury is still very much out on the other contenders. We assess where the value may lie. All odds given are the best available on the market.

Sunderland: (9/5 Paddy Power)
Current position: 18th
Current points: 24 from 26 games

Verdict: The Black Cats have two games in hand, soon to be three, and it remains to be seen whether dual Cup runs prove to be a hindrance to league survival. Results have generally been much better since Gus Poyet arrived in October and the spirit is back in the camp. However they still sit below the dreaded bottom line and home clashes with Palace, West Ham and Cardiff look pivotal.

West Brom: (11/4 Coral)
Current position: 17th
Current points: 25 from 27 games

Verdict: Alarm bells are ringing. Pepe Mel appears to be under pressure after just six (winless) games. A home draw with Fulham last time out caused consternation and that’s been the Baggies’ problem - 13 draws has meant just four wins all season. The irony is that Albion can give anyone a game on their day; points having come against Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea already.

Crystal Palace: (2/1 Boylesports)
Current position: 16th
Current points: 27 from 27 games

Verdict: Looked dead and buried in autumn after taking four points from their first 11 top flight fixtures. Tony Pulis has turned it around by making the defence resilient and Selhurst Park intimidating. However, it may be that Palace’s away form will now prove decisive with trips to Sunderland, Cardiff, West Ham and Fulham still to come.

Norwich: (13/5 Ladbrokes)
Current position: 15th
Current points: 28 from 28 games

Verdict: The Canaries are pretty strong at home having taken 20 pts at Carrow Road, only conceding 11 goals in 14 matches - that’s the 5th best record in the top flight. The problem is more down the other end; they have scored the joint fewest (12) on their travels. Chris Hughton is favourite to lose his job next (11/10 WilliamHill) and the final four Norwich games are Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal. Have reasons to worry.

Swansea: (14/1 Ladbrokes)
Current position: 14th
Current points: 29 from 28 games

Verdict: A huge price considering they are just five points above Sunderland in 18th having played two games more. The bookies clearly believe that the Swans have too much quality to slide towards peril, but you can see why. Wilfried Bony has scored more goals than any other striker down that end while the Europa League has been a huge distraction. With that adventure now over, expect the necessary points to come.

Stoke: (20/1 Ladbrokes)
Current position: 13th
Current points: 30 from 28 games

Verdict: Quoted as 7/1 shots by most bookies only a few days ago, but a win against Arsenal has convinced many that Hughes’s boys will be safe. If they are, that will be almost entirely down to a remarkable home record (W6 D6 L2) which is worthy of a top-six team. But away from the Britannia, the Potters are pitiful (W1 D3 L10), and I expect that price to shorten again before this relegation scrap is over.

Hull: (12/1 Betfred)
Current position: 12th
Current points: 30 from 28 games

Verdict: Steve Bruce has done a remarkable job to take a side that finished behind Cardiff last season and make them look considerably better than the Bluebirds now. A recent 4-0 win in Wales demonstrated the gulf. Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long were inspired January signings and you just can’t see the Tigers returning to the Championship in 2014-15.

Aston Villa: (25/1 Bet365)
Current position: 11th
Current points: 31 from 28 games

Verdict: The odds and the league position imply that the Villains are cruising along in mid-table, but that really wasn’t the case, especially before the 4-1 hammering of Norwich last time out. Before that, Lambert’s boys hadn’t found the net in three outings and Christian Benteke looked like a lost soul. What a difference a few days can make! Home games against Stoke, Fulham, Southampton and Hull should return the required points.

West Ham: (18/1 Coral)
Current position: 10th
Current points: 31 from 28 games

Verdict: From relegation zone to top half in no time at all - the Hammers showed why these odds are worth analysing for value. Sam Allardyce’s boys won four in a row in February so imagine what will happen if Sunderland do the same. West Ham have the best clean sheet record in the top flight (13) and those strong foundations will ensure Premier League football at the Boleyn Ground for some time yet.