18th Dec 2014 | Premier League
A Little Less Conversion
United keep winning without convincing and at some stage their shot conversion rate will cool.
On a run of six wins in a row, this might be the worst time to back Man Utd but whilst I accept their confidence is high, their performances still lag some way behind.
Take last weekend against Liverpool, despite a seemingly comfortable 3-0 win, David De Gea was man of the match.
Fortunately, most punters forget performance and look at results, which is why United are a ludicrously short 8/13 to win at Villa Park on Saturday.
The Red Devils concede on average 14.3 shots per game away from home, yet register only 11.3 shots of their own; not exactly a position of dominance.
All the value lies with Aston Villa at 11/2 (BetVictor) but we can improve our price using some common sense.
Villa aren’t going to beat United in a gun fight. Paul Lambert’s men have scored more than one goal at home only twice in seven attempts and they are yet to score three or more in any league game.
That leaves us with only two plausible Villa wins 2-1 and 1-0.
I expect United’s conversion rate to come crashing back down to earth soon; therefore a 1-0 win is the play at 16/1 (BetVictor).
Odds correct at time of publishing: 09:09 18th Dec, 2014 but subject to change
