Oaks Trials By Time

Horse racing might seem like an old-fashioned sport but those looking to exploit an edge in the betting markets are working smarter than ever.

Simon Rowlands has been pushing the boundaries with his work on sectional timings at Timeform and it is an approach we have adopted on the flat.

The premise revolves around timing sections of the race, usually the final 2f/3f and seeing how this impacts on the overall time.

This is a methodology we have adopted when analysing the Oaks trials.

Oaks Trials

Sources: Timeform & Racing Post

Top Speed Rating: Legatissimo
Legatissimo has run the fastest speed figure in the field, earning a 107 (Topspeed) rating for her victory in the 1000 Guineas. However, this figure needs to be put into context.

The 1000 Guineas was run at a strong pace (98.9% race finishing speed) which helped generate a fast overall time.

Looking at the individual fractions Legatissimo ran the most ‘even’ paced race and was potentially flattered in victory, her rivals suffered for setting/chasing a strong pace.

Musidora Reversal
Star of Seville got the best of Together Forever at York but off level weights I fancy the positions will be reversed at Epsom.

Together Forever was carrying a 4lbs penalty and also let Star of Seville get first run having set no more than solid gallop.

The overall time was good but the pair need to improve to win at Epsom.

Sectional Upgrade: Crystal Zvezda
Crystal Zvezda earned the fourth highest speed rating in the Oaks Trials but unlike the three above her, she deserves an upgrade on her rating.

Held-up in rear at Newbury, she showed a devastating turn of pace to come from behind and win by 3.5 lengths. Her closing sectional was 0.75s faster than anything else in the race and the ease of her victory suggests there is more to come.

Crystal Zvezda has the potential to earn a bigger speed rating by tracking/setting a stronger early pace. Considering she is already ranked fourth in our speed ratings list she has the potential to win the Oaks.