Newbury Tips: Lyvius

The Betfair Hurdle (3.35 Newbury) is a fascinating contest where the Paul Nicholls pair of Pearl Swan and Dark Lover are big threats.

Pearl Swan follows a similar profile to last year’s winner Zarkandar. He was a promising juvenile but we’ve only seen him once this season after a breathing operation in the summer. He still holds an entry in the Champion Hurdle and although we have little recent form to go on, he could be a cut above the rest.

Unfortunately, Dark Lover has already shown his hand to the handicapper, when romping home by 16 lengths at Cheltenham. He was put up 17lbs for that performance and although he is lightly raced to improve further, he might turn out to be a Cheltenham specialist.

That leaves us with my actual selection – Lyvius. At 40/1 (Bet365) he is the biggest price of the three and that was ultimately the determining factor. Last time out he flopped in the Ladbroke Hurdle but he shouldn’t be judged too harshly. The going was heavy and although he enjoys soft ground, he struggled in Germany on very soft ground, finishing 9th when 3/1 favourite.

It is much fairer to judge him on his course and distance win back in November, when he beat the useful Edgardo Sol. He earned an RPR of 137 that day and, only 5-years-old, he can improve, especially under the tutelage of Nicky Henderson.

This afternoon he races off a mark of 133, given his profile I expect he has at least 10lbs in hand. At 40/1 (Bet365) he rates an excellent each-way bet with Bet365 paying ¼ odds for a top-5 finish.

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Back Lyvius with Bet365 as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.

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