13th Jul 2012 | Horse Racing
July Cup Pace Chart
We examine where the pace is drawn for Saturday’s July Cup at Newmarket.
With 15 runners spread across the track in the July Cup (3.20 Saturday), the race could be dependant on where the early pace is. Using a method presented by Jon Gibby in the excellent book, “Well-Handicapped Horses” we can rank horses by their early speed. Looking at their last three runs, they are awarded points on how prominently they raced. The horses with the highest numbers are deemed the ‘pace-makers’.
July Cup Pace Chart
Libranno is the most likely front-runner and in a contest where the pace looks no more than moderate there is a danger he could get a soft lead.
The majority of the pace is over in the bottom half of the draw so the field could congregate on the near side rail. That stretch of track was favoured in Thursday’s sprint when the first two home came from stalls 1 & 2. A combination of draw and pace bias could favour horses drawn low.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:43 13th Jul, 2012 but subject to change
