Epsom Oaks Tip: Devotion

To win an Oaks (4.05 Epsom) you need a filly with plenty of stamina in her pedigree. Eight of the last ten winners have come from families laden with stamina on the dam’s side. If you look at their breeding, those eight winners all had a dam with a dosage index of at least 9.9f. That number represents the average distance the progeny (offspring) race over.

The last two Oaks winners were bred more to be 8/10f horses but unusually both races were run at a slow pace, meaning their stamina was never truly tested. That shouldn’t happen today, with plenty of pace in the race. Using this rule of thumb, we can whittle down the field, excluding short price horses such as Maybe.

Of the remaining candidates, Devotion grabs my attention. She looks relatively exposed, this being her eighth start. But this can be misleading as we saw with Homecoming Queen who won the 1,000 Guineas on her 14th start.

In her most recent race Devotion came from last to second, chasing home Yellow Rosebud who enjoyed a much less troubled passage. That race was over a mile and the way Devotion finished you expect she will improve for a step up in trip. There is plenty of stamina in her breeding, with her half-brother a winner of a 2-mile national hunt flat race.

I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Devotion and having earned a Racing Post Rating of 105 she doesn’t have much to find on the likes of Kailani and Vow. At 50/1 (Paddy Power) she is massively overpriced.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – Paddy Power
Back Devotion Paddy Power as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.

*Money Back Special - Paddy Power
Paddy Power will refund losing bets up to £100 if your selection finishes second to Maybe in the Epsom Oaks.