Epsom Draw Bias: 12f

Track: Epsom
Distance: 12f
Stalls: High

Summary: Slight advantage being drawn high but generally fair.

Despite Epsom being a turning left-handed track, the stalls are position on the far rail of the 12f course used for the Derby and the Oaks.

To overcome this problem we have called the highest stall (nearest the stand’s rail) stall ‘0’. From there we work across the track from highest to lowest. The bigger the minus number, the further away you are from the stand’s rail. e.g in a 10-runner race, stall 10 is against the stand’s rail and denoted as stall ‘0’.

Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)

Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0

To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.

Conclusion: Despite Epsom’s idiosyncrasies it is generally a fair course in terms of draw, with the highest four stalls enjoying only a slight advantage.