WGC Match Play Betting: The True Picture

Paul Casey was interviewed straight after his 19 holes victory and asked if he played the man or the course. Interestingly he said he played the course most of the time. The commentators glossed over this but it gave us some insight into his match play tactics. He was basically saying he goes out, concentrates on scoring low and then sees what happens.

It is quite difficult to see what each player scores, with only the match play result reported. But with a bit of digging I have found every player’s scorecard and these were the top rounds. Bear in mind not all of these went the full 18 holes. Odds to win the tournament included.

-5 JB Holmes 35/1
-5 E. Molinari 50/1
-4 B. Watson 35/1
-4 H. Mahan 25/1
-4 J. Day 50/1
-3 KJ Choi 50/1
-3 L. Donald 20/1
-3 P. Mickelson 16/1
-3 B. Crane 50/1

It is interesting to note that predominantly these are the outsiders in the betting.

Let’s now look at the worst winning performnaces:

+3 E. Els 40/1
+2 J. Rose 35/1
+1 R. Palmer 70/1
+1 L. Westwood 16/1
Par N. Watney 20/1
Par M. Kaymer 11/1
Par B. Van Pelt 79/1
Par S. Cink 28/1
Par. Y.Yang 66/1

The players that standout are Kaymer, Westwood and Watney. All getting through despite not playing well. The old adage is that you can only beat what is in front of you, but when it comes to betting would you not rather have someone in good form that plays the course well?