Punter vs. Pro: Masters Golf

This week Tim from Westerham has emailed with his US Masters selections. A part time punter, this is his favourite major and hope he gets a run for his money. These are his tips, with our golf expert’s opinion in italics.

Dustin Johnson to win: 28/1
It is an open and high quality field, but I am going for Dustin Johnson. He has got pedigree in recent majors and showed up well at the recent WGC event against much the same opposition. He has the length to take on and tame the par 5s. The birdies they should yield will mean he is thereabouts come Sunday.
Verdict: I’m against you with this pick I’m afraid Tim. Yes, he showed up well in Majors but it exposed a bigger concern, the mental aspect of his game. At the US Open he imploded with a wretched 82, but his error in the PGA was even more grave. The rules committee informed the players that all sandy areas, regardless of their location and condition, were to be considered bunkers. It was an amateurish mistake to ground the club, which cost him a playoff. He also comes into the Masters on the back of a missed cut. His record of bouncing back from a MC in the last three years has been average, with only one top ten from seven attempts.

Graeme McDowell - Top GB & Ire: 10/1
A difficult selection with Westwood, Rose and Poulter respected amongst a strong contingent of British and Irish golfers. Concern over Westwood’s recent putting problems and Poulter’s hyped reputation mean they are opposable. Rose is a real danger but the value in the market is for McDowell. Yes, he has not been playing well of late but not that long ago this man beat Woods down the stretch. That takes nerve and proved he has what it takes to win a major. He recently tweeted that he took cash off Poulter and Rose in a three-ball, enough evidence for me that his game is coming back
Verdict: Twitter gives us an interesting insight into a pro’s life on tour and can be invaluable when disclosing injuries. But basing a return to form on a tweeted three-ball win is very dangerous. I would much rather go with my own eyes; as I see it his ball striking has not been good enough. His last two competitive finishes were a T42 and MC, and he missed the cut last year at Augusta. As you say this is a competitive market and I make McDowell one of the less likely winners.

Ben Crane each way: 150/1
My last selection is a notorious slow but solid player - Ben Crane. He has made 5 out of 5 cuts this year and is slowly getting used to the Masters with a respectable T24 last year. What I really like is that in 2011 he ranks no.1 on tour for GIRs; which around Augusta should help, it is not the place you want to be off the green in regulation.
Verdict: I agree, although he had a couple of sighters of Augusta in 06 & 07, he is a better player now. Very much in the Zach Johnson mould, he does not hit the ball particularly far but he hits it straight. Last year Crane started to show his talent with a win and four other top ten finishes. It goes without saying that he has to play extremely well to win. I think he will be thereabouts and perhaps sneak into the money on Sunday.