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5th Apr 2021 | The Masters

The Masters Trends

The Masters Trends

The first major of the year takes place at Augusta. We look at the trends of past winners for pointers.

Rory McIlroy is still chasing a Grand Slam but the competition is as strong as ever. Jordan Spieth has regained the winning thread and could DeChambeau attempt to overpower the course? The plots are numerous.

In what could be a vintage Masters we can narrow down the field by looking at the trends of past winners. With closer inspection four distinct factors come to the fore:

Made the cut last year
Over the last ten years, Patrick Reed was the first who did not make the cut the year before they won their Masters. No debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Top-60 on tour for scoring average
Adjusted scoring average is a good measure of quality and the cream usually rises to the top at Augusta. 13 of the last 14 winners (no PGA Tour data for Danny Willett) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for this metric.

Top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green
Perhaps the most important statistic relating to Augusta. The last 13 winners (Willett excluded, no data) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green.

Top-60 on tour for strokes gained with approach shots
12 of the last 13 winners (Willett excluded, no data) also ranked inside the top-60 on tour with strokes gained with approaches to the green. Patrick Reed bucked the trend and was ranked 74th when winning in 2018.

Players that fit all four trends (PGA Tour only):
Abraham Ancer
Brooks Koepka
Bryson DeChambeau
Collin Morikawa
Corey Conners
Daniel Berger
Dustin Johnson
Hideki Matsuyama
Jon Rahm
Jordan Spieth
Justin Thomas
Matt Wallace
Patrick Cantlay
Paul Casey
Ryan Palmer
Tony Finau
Viktor Hovland
Xander Schauffele

Abraham Ancer to win 80/1 with Bet365
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 08:04 5th Apr, 2021 but subject to change

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