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1st Apr 2018 | The Masters

The Masters Trends

The Masters Trends

The first major of the year takes place at Augusta. We look at the trends of past winners for pointers.

Rory McIlroy is still chasing a Grand Slam but the competition is as strong as ever. Tiger Woods is looking like his old self whilst Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas are tightly matched at the top of the world standings.

In what could be a vintage Masters we can narrow down the field by looking at the trends of past winners. With closer inspection three distinct factors come to the fore:

Made the cut last year
Each of the last seven winners made the cut the year before they won their Masters and no debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Top-60 on tour for scoring average
Adjusted scoring average is a good measure of quality and the cream usually rises to the top at Augusta. Ten of the last eleven winners (no PGA Tour data for Danny Willett) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for this metric.

Top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green
Perhaps the most important statistic relating to Augusta. The last ten winners (Willett excluded no data) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green. The average rank was 20th.

Top-60 on tour for strokes gained with approach shots
The last ten winners (Willett excluded no data) also ranked inside the top-60 on tour with strokes gained with approaches to the green. Bubba Watson was the highest ranked at 59th when winning in 2012.

Players that fit all four trends (PGA Tour only):
Brendan Steele
Charley Hoffman
Jordan Spieth
Justin Thomas
Kevin Chappell
Marc Leishman
Paul Casey
Phil Mickelson
Rickie Fowler
Sergio Garcia

Justin Thomas to win 10/1 with Coral
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 08:54 1st Apr, 2018 but subject to change

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