8th Nov 2020 | The Masters

The Masters Trends

The Masters Trends

The last major of the year takes place at Augusta. We look at the trends of past winners for pointers.

Rory McIlroy is still chasing a Grand Slam but the competition is as strong as ever. Tiger Woods is trying to defend, DeChambeau to overpower and the rest are just looking for wins.

In what could be a vintage Masters we can narrow down the field by looking at the trends of past winners. With closer inspection four distinct factors come to the fore:

Made the cut last year
Over the last nine years, Patrick Reed was the first who did not make the cut the year before they won their Masters. No debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Top-60 on tour for scoring average
Adjusted scoring average is a good measure of quality and the cream usually rises to the top at Augusta. Twelve of the last 13 winners (no PGA Tour data for Danny Willett) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for this metric.

Top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green
Perhaps the most important statistic relating to Augusta. The last twelve winners (Willett excluded, no data) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green. The average rank was 20th.

Top-60 on tour for strokes gained with approach shots
11 of the last 12 winners (Willett excluded, no data) also ranked inside the top-60 on tour with strokes gained with approaches to the green. Patrick Reed bucked the trend and was ranked 74th when winning in 2018.

Players that fit all four trends (PGA Tour only):
Adam Scott
Brooks Koepka
Corey Conners
Dustin Johnson
Gary Woodland
Hideki Matsuyama
Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay
Rory McIlroy
Tony Finau
Tyrrell Hatton
Webb Simpson
Xander Schauffele

Webb Simpson to win 30/1 with Bet365
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 14:38 8th Nov, 2020 but subject to change

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