9th Apr 2019 | The Masters
The Masters Trends
The first major of the year takes place at Augusta. We look at the trends of past winners for pointers.
Rory McIlroy is still chasing a Grand Slam but the competition is as strong as ever. Tiger Woods is looking like his old self whilst Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas are tightly matched at the top of the world standings.
In what could be a vintage Masters we can narrow down the field by looking at the trends of past winners. With closer inspection three distinct factors come to the fore:
Made the cut last year
Over the last eight years, Patrick Reed was the first who did not make the cut the year before they won their Masters. No debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Top-60 on tour for scoring average
Adjusted scoring average is a good measure of quality and the cream usually rises to the top at Augusta. Eleven of the last twelve winners (no PGA Tour data for Danny Willett) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for this metric.
Top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green
Perhaps the most important statistic relating to Augusta. The last eleven winners (Willett excluded, no data) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green. The average rank was 20th.
Top-60 on tour for strokes gained with approach shots
Ten of the last eleven winners (Willett excluded, no data) also ranked inside the top-60 on tour with strokes gained with approaches to the green. Patrick Reed bucked the trend and was ranked 74th when winning in 2018.
Players that fit all four trends (PGA Tour only):
Odds correct at time of publishing: 06:27 9th Apr, 2019 but subject to change