Craven A Clean Sheet

All the pre-match talk is about Fulham’s escapology bid and the bookies think their run will continue with the home win nothing longer than 11/8 (BetVictor) here. That could happen, but it ignores the fact that Hull have looked a cut above their opponents all season.

In particular, Steve Bruce will surely fancy his strikers’ chances against the division’s worst defence. The Cottagers have conceded 77 times at an average of 2.2 goals per game which is 20 worse than even bottom of the table Sunderland.

Not many players are more due a goal than Nikica Jelavic. All season we have pin-pointed players who are either outscoring or under-scoring, based on shots statistics and the tendency to ‘revert to the mean.’ The Croatian most certainly falls into the latter category.

The former Everton man averages 3.8 shots per game for Hull. Ostensibly, this puts him in a category alongside Sergio Aguero who has scored 16 goals from just 17 starts for Man City. Now nobody is saying Jelavic is at that level, but it does suggest he is due a fair few more goals!

The 28-year-old found the net away to Sunderland and twice at Cardiff. Now he visits the final member of the bottom three and at best odds of 9/4 (Betfred) he is a decent price to score anytime at Craven Cottage.