Newcastle v Benfica Tip

Two statistics stand out ahead of this St James’s Park showdown that Alan Pardew describes, somewhat confusingly, as the “biggest game in the club’s history for a while.” Firstly, Newcastle are unbeaten in an impressive 22 European home games (W18 D4). Secondly, Benfica haven’t lost a competitive game, excluding penalty shootouts, in their last 35 outings, dating back to 23 October (W30 D5).

So will one of those sequences end, or is it a nailed-on draw? I think the Benfica run is the more relevant as it reflects their excellence in the here-and-now whereas the Magpies’ record owes a lot to history. With that considered, I’m happy to take the visitors’ kingpin Oscar Cardozo as first goalscorer at best odds of 5/1 with Betfred.

The Paraguayan international has scored a mighty 104 goals in 153 appearances for the Portuguese giants who have won every Europa League fixture since they dropped out of the Champions League last autumn. The 29-year-old has been the chief architect of the run to the verge of the semi-finals, finding the net four times in five matches.

Cardozo scored twice off the bench away to Bordeaux in the round of 16 before adding to his tally against Newcastle at Estadio da Luz. He is the man most likely to kill the tie dead tonight and break Geordie hearts.