FA Cup Tip: Man City v Villa

There’s the whiff of an upset about this game with Villa improving all the time, but with Man City having a couple of key players back, a draw looks highly plausible. This in itself would represent something of a surprise at 14/5 with totesport.

This is one of those fascinating times when the bare statistics make Man City’s form look much more impressive than it really is. A record of four unbeaten and one loss in eight in all competitions may sound tasty, but let’s delve a little deeper. Since defeat in the Manchester derby, the results have been a draw and a win against Aris Salonika in the Europa Cup, a home win against Notts County in the FA Cup and a home draw with Fulham. The fixture list has been kind, albeit a little crowded, and the performances have been no more than adequate overall.

Meanwhile, in the Claret corner, Villa have been fairing somewhat better than one win in four suggests. That triumph came as recently as Saturday and was of the thumping 4-1 variety against Blackburn. Before that there were reasonable draws with Fulham and Blackpool that now contribute to a run of one loss in nine. That has a much better ring to it, especially when defeat has only been tasted at Old Trafford in the past two months.

Furthermore, Villa’s surge up the league table towards the relative security of mid-table really began with a 1-0 win over City, when Darren Bent scored the winner on his debut. Surprisingly, the former Sunderland hotshot hasn’t found the net in his last three but that scarcely seems to matter if the team are still scoring pretty freely, as they did on Saturday.

The possible return to the Man City side of David Silva, as well as Micah Richards, makes me think that the 5/1 available on a Villa win should just about be avoided, in favour of the draw at 14/5.