7th Dec 2012 | Football
Everton v Tottenham Tip
Everton aren’t taking their chance and that could cost them against a clinical Tottenham.
Statistics can be a powerful tool but can be easily manipulated by the way they are presented. Everton are 21/20 (Paddy Power) to win at home against Tottenham but the value of this bet is how you read the form.
• Everton have lost only once in their last 10 matches
• Everton have won only twice in their last 10 matches
Both statements are true but illicit a different approach to betting – of course you could always back the draw at 5/2!
Having watched Everton several times this season I’m in the second camp and concerned about their recent form. For all their good play, they cannot find the net frequently enough, with Nikica Jelavic’s form a big problem.
The Croatian striker was a big hit last season averaging a goal every 106 minutes. This season his strike rate has dropped to a goal every 237 minutes despite his side creating more chances.
Tottenham are enjoying a good run, helped in large part by their clinical striker Jermain Defoe. Spurs have scored 11 goals in their last five games with the England striker averaging a goal every 131 minutes.
I expect a familiar pattern to unfold at Goodison Park on Sunday, for all Everton’s good play they won’t score enough goals and that could leave them vulnerable to a Tottenham ‘smash and grab’ performance. Goals win games and Spurs have the edge at a generous 16/5 (William Hill).
Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:56 7th Dec, 2012 but subject to change
