Crystal Palace v Cardiff Tip

The first leg of the Carling Cup semi-final between Palace and Cardiff takes place in south London on Tuesday night, and we should expect it to be a nervy affair. With a major cup final appearance at Wembley up for grabs for one of these two Championship sides, this is a rare but significant opportunity for glory. It will almost certainly be tight; I recommend taking the 9/4 (StanJames) on there being under 1.5 goals in the match.

Palace are mid-table, nine points behind third placed Cardiff, and therefore come in as underdogs. But the hosts are much improved this season under Dougie Freedman, with a solid back line key to their upturn in fortunes. The Eagles boast the third best defensive record in the division with just 24 goals conceded in 25 matches. That’s just one worse than West Ham and Middlesbrough. At home, Palace have conceded just eight in 12 games - joint best in the Championship.

The problem Freedman has is that finding opponents’ nets is proving just as difficult. The hosts have only scored 11 goals at Selhurst Park; that’s the joint third worst record in the second tier. It therefore shouldn’t surprise anyone that autumn brought three consecutive 0-0 draws at the ground!

Cardiff’s priority will be avoiding defeat in the away leg. Funnily enough, Palace may not be too unhappy with a draw either. They have actually won more away games this season that at home, so will still fancy their chances if it’s level heading to Wales. A 0-0 first leg is quite plausible at 17/2, but there could easily be one goal either way. That’s why I favour the 9/4 (StanJames) on there being under 1.5 goals in the match.