Chelsea v Swansea Tip

The bookies are convinced that Chelsea will establish a first leg lead by winning at Stamford Bridge (4/9 PaddyPower) and I think that should probably be the case. However, there’s no value in taking that straight option and I think Swansea are good enough to return to the Liberty Stadium with genuine hope.

At best odds of 8/1 (BetVictor), I think a 2-1 victory for the hosts is quite likely and would leave the tie beautifully poised. Those anticipating a more convincing Chelsea win should consider a couple of factors. Firstly, the Blues have been hugely inconsistent on their own patch lately; one day they’re stuffing Villa 8-0, the next they’re losing at home to bottom club QPR.

Secondly, the Swans are no mugs. Unbeaten in their last five games across all competitions, before that they lost by the odd goal at White Hart Lane. It was the same story at the Etihad; in fact the Welsh club haven’t lost a fixture by more than one goal in any of their last 18 outings.

Chelsea have won three and lost none of their last five clashes with Swansea and I would expect that sequence to continue with Rafa Benitez desperate for silverware to appease the fans. Both teams have netted in all those fixtures and I would also expect that run to be extended too.

A 2-1 scoreline may be all the more likely because it wouldn’t be a terrible outcome for either side. Nobody wants to be out of contention before the second leg and that could play into our hands on Wednesday night.