Cardiff v West Ham Tip

First legs of semi-finals are often notoriously tight affairs at the best of times but it may be the case more than ever at Cardiff City Stadium on Thursday night as the Championship play-offs get underway.

The prize of Premier League football is so great that players can easily get in the mindset of trying not to lose the tie for their club. Negative thoughts don’t encourage flee-flowing football and a game of few or no goals becomes more likely.

Let’s just quickly recap why these sides may be particularly nervous. West Ham narrowly missed out on automatic promotion having occupied second spot for long periods of the run-in. The Hammers were pre-season favourites, and the bookies still make them the most likely in the play-off ‘lottery.’ A run of seven winless games at Upton Park proved costly as the hosts froze under pressure.

This won’t have escaped Cardiff’s attention and they may fancy their chances even if tonight’s game in Wales ends in a draw. This is obviously quite unusual with home teams normally desperate to get their noses in front before they travel for the return. Furthermore, away goals don’t count in this format so Sam Allardyce’s boys arguably have less need to go for the juggernaut as well. It could be cagey.

The Bluebirds have their own reasons to be slightly petrified. They have stumbled in these play-offs two years running and they remain desperate to join Swansea in the promised land.

When it looks like being tense and tight goalless draws frequently become good value. Boylesports offer us 9/1 on the 0-0 but we’re better off taking the same price on ‘no goalscorer’ - found in the first goalscorer market. The same firm give us 9/1 with the difference being we still win if there is an own goal.