Besiktas v Stoke Tip

My first thought on this game was that Stoke would ‘have the cigars out’ after qualifying, so Besiktas to win looked a strong bet at 20/21 (StanJames). However, a little more assessment of the situation has led me to believe that the superior option is in fact the draw at a best price of 5/2 with Boylesports.

Perhaps most importantly, this is the result that the hosts require to ensure their own progression to the round of 32. The Turkish side are three points ahead of Dynamo Kiev heading into this final round of fixtures. With the Ukranians at home to whipping boys Maccabi Tel-Aviv, Besiktas must take care of their own business.

It’s true that a home win would allow them to leapfrog the Potters and claim top spot for themselves. However, I just can’t see them pushing too hard for victory and risking leaving the back door open when that could result in elimination.

Tony Pulis will probably rest a few players, but he will still be able to call upon a surprisingly strong line-up. A look at the bench Stoke boasted for the win over Tottenham tells you that they suddenly have some serious strength in depth; Upson, Delap, Palacios, Jones, Fuller…It would have previously been unthinkable that they could beat a side like Spurs with players of that calibre in reserve. Expect most of these excellent back-ups to be utilised in Istanbul.

Stoke will be proud of their unbeaten European record and rather keen to preserve it. If they were already assured of top spot and if Besiktas needed a win, I would definitely back the home victory. But that is not the case. In the circumstances, a mutually beneficial draw has to be the best bet, particularly with the superior value of 5/2 (Boylesports) on offer.