Benfica v Newcastle Tip

Newcastle’s Europa League run has been built on a tight defence and snatching the odd crucial goal at key moments. For the daunting trip to Benfica on Thursday night the approach will remain the same; defend for your lives and keep the tie in the balance for the return leg at St James’s Park.

The Magpies have slugged their way across the continent by keeping eight clean sheets, including four in a row since the group stages. Ten of the Toon Army’s 12 matches have had two goals or fewer so it’s tempting to simply pile into the under 2.5 goals in the match market at best odds of 21/20 with BetVictor.

However, Benfica are the toughest team that Newcastle will have faced in this competition and I just can’t quite see the visitors holding out at Estadio da Luz. Cheick Tiote and Fabricio Coloccini are big losses from a defensive point of view while the likes of Nemanja Matic, Oscar Cardozo and Pablo Aimar are all available for the hosts.

I have a strong inclination for Benfica to win this first leg 1-0 at best odds of 13/2 with BetVictor. The Portuguese have won their last three at home in the Europa League by the odd goal and it’s a scoreline that perhaps both sides would both just about take on the night. When that’s the case, it’s more likely to happen.