11th Feb 2012 | Football
Aston Villa v Man City Tip
City have won just two of their last nine away games in all competitions. The odds don't reflect that.
The bookies continue to price up Manchester City as if they are still on their exhilarating early season form by making them a best price 8/11 (Ladbrokes) to win at Villa Park on Sunday. This seems to totally fly in the face of their current run of just one league victory in their last six away league matches. And that was a slender 1-0 success at bottom of the table Wigan.
With that in mind it becomes hard not to fixate on the 19/4 (BetVictor) being offered on a home win. Tempting, but Alex McLeish’s side draw a lot of games so we should favour the 14/5 Sportingbet offer on a Villa win in the draw no bet market. That way we have the insurance of our money back if the spoils are shared, while the value still looks good.
The reasons to think Mancini’s side may drop more points are becoming very familiar. Firstly, the pressure of topping the table for so long, having never won the big prize, is immense. Secondly, City have missed key personnel for most of the last six weeks, and that remains the case on Sunday. The Toure brothers are still absent due to the African Cup of Nations while the mercurial Mario Balotelli completes his ban.
Villa have looked to have more about them as an attacking force ever since Robbie Keane arrived on loan. He has scored three in his last four outings as has Darren Bent. The England striker scored the decisive goal in a 1-0 win for the hosts in this fixture last season. That made it four matches without a victory at Villa Park for Manchester City.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:50 11th Feb, 2012 but subject to change
