Wolves v Arsenal: First Goalscorer Tip

Robin Van Persie hit the post, had a header cleared off the line by his own team-mate, and generally did everything but score against Man City on Sunday. That was a bet we were unlucky to lose, but I still think he rates as good value in the first goalscorer market against Wolves at best odds of 11/4 with WilliamHill.

The Premier League’s leading marksman has scored 26 of Arsenal’s 63 top flight goals this season; that’s a 41% contribution. In fact, that ratio would have been higher at almost every other stage of the season since the Dutchman has unusually failed to score any of his team’s last six goals. Before that run, his percentage contribution was a remarkable 46%.

This tells us that in a match where the Gunners are highly likely to score first, then his odds should be remarkably short to break the deadlock. This is the case at Molineux tonight. Wolves are rock bottom after six straight defeats while Wenger’s boys have won seven of their last eight in all competitions.

I would make Arsenal about 80% likely to open the scoring on Wednesday night, and that may be a conservative estimate. That would mean that Van Persie, with a 41% contribution rate for the visitors, could be expected to find the net first about 33% of the time. In other words, he is a 2/1 shot that we’re getting offered up at nearly a point more - 11/4 (WilliamHill) is a bargain.