15th Feb 2011 | Horse Racing
Sweet Victory at Southwell
This 14/1 shot has had three terrible draws in a row. Well drawn today she can show her true form is better than this grade.
Sweet Avon has an excellent chance at big odds in the 1.50 at Southwell. Forgotten in the betting because she has finished 778 in her last three runs, those results mask her true ability. The reason why she has underperformed is quite simply she has had poor draws.
Three runs ago at Kempton she was drawn nine off the rail, a terrible stall that only wins half the races it should (check out our Kempton draw bias analysis). The same happened in her last two runs at Lingfield, she was drawn in stall 1 and 12 the only two bad draws you can have at Lingfield over six furlongs. Finally her luck has changed and she has got the plum draw in stall three.
A draw on it’s own won’t win you a race but Sweet Avon has the ability to make the most of it. She can race prominently and has been competiting in a higher grade to this, she finished only 2.75 lengths behind the useful Wooden King in November.
The betting market has got her all wrong and this is a great opportunity to tip a big priced winner.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 09:18 15th Feb, 2011 but subject to change
