Southwell Tips: Scarborough

In the 3.25 Southwell we have a perfect storm; the best horse in the race has the best draw.

Scarborough has been a revelation for Michael Appleby winning three times last year and improving her course record to 15113.

The 4-year-old shaped well on her first start in two months when only beaten 2.5 lengths by Royal Bajan.

She ran particularly well from stall six considering the first two home came from the lowest two stalls and she was racing away from the speed.

Scarborough travelled like a dream but unfortunately got caught in a pocket as the race developed up the middle of the track. By the time she got clear the race was over but she beat everything around her convincingly. 

13 December 2014: 1.50 Southwell Ratings

If you examine the race you’ll see the draw bias at play. The three lowest drawn horses all regressed on their next start (where there was no bias). Meanwhile those drawn high all put in improved performances on their next start.

Stalls 1-4 regressed by an average of 6lbs according to Racing Post Ratings, those drawn 7-10 improved by 17lbs.

In stall 1, Scarborough has a great draw and with Michael Appleby enjoying a 23% strike rate at Southwell this winter everything looks in her favour at 11/4 (BetVictor).

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