13th Dec 2016 | Horse Racing
Southwell Tips: Llewellyn
When racing off a mark of 67 or lower over 7f at Southwell his record is 2211. Phil Dennis takes off a valuable 5lbs.
In the right circumstances, Llewellyn is a fair horse and they are 7f on soft turf or Fibresand. His last two victories have come at Southwell and he could go in again.
When racing off a mark of 67 or lower his record over 7f at Southwell is 2211. When racing off higher it becomes 8545. It seems a combination of weight/grade have a dramatic effect on performance and that’s probably to do with his running style.
A perennial front-runner he can’t sustain a strong pace against better horses, nor can he carry too much weight against those of similar ability. This afternoon he is weighted to carry 9-4 off a mark of 62 but with his jockey’s claim that becomes 8-13.
Phil Dennis has been aboard for his last two wins and has an impressive 16% strike rate (9-58) for Declan Carroll.
It’s seems are the numbers point to a big run from Llewellyn.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 01:50 13th Dec, 2016 but subject to change
