Southwell Tips: Il Battista

The 4.00 at Southwell is a fascinating race and a perfect example of one of my favourite betting strategies.

Some of the best bets around are when front-running horse enjoy a soft lead. Without the stress of being hassled by competitors, horses can perform to the maximum of their ability, putting in career best runs.

The opposite is true when a front-runner has a contested lead. If the leader gets into a duel they are likely to run too fast, too soon and tire dramatically at the end of the race. 

Greenhead High enjoyed the first scenario but falls into the latter today. His recent win has him forced to step up in grade, which means he will be facing naturally quicker horses, with better early pace. With the likes of Punching, Legal Eagle and Soopacal in the race there are three potential front-runners to contest the lead with him. Greenhead High will do well to get close to repeating his last performance under a subtle change of circumstances.

Having discussed horses that are poor bets, lets focus on the best value – Il Battista.

The predicted strong pace should collapse, allowing the closers to benefit. Il Battista (10/1 with BetVictor) is a proven winner over further but will need the furious gallop to play to his stamina reserves. He has placed twice at six furlongs, both times in better company, suggesting he might be able to stay in touch with the early gallop. If he is within striking distance at the turn then his power-packed finish should win the race. 

*Best Odds Guaranteed – BetVictor
Back Il Battista with BetVictor as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.