Doncaster Tips: Shropshire

At the big meetings this year Turf Trax have been recording sectional times for each race. This provides a fascinating insight on how a race develops and is a tool American punters have enjoyed for decades. Unfortunately, the scarcity of data doesn’t allow us to build up a profile on each horse but it can still be useful.

I have reproduced the sectional times for the Stewards’ Cup Sprint (available in full here) and collated the splits between the 4f and 1f markers. This is the part of the race where jockeys make their moves and is often the most significant moment in the contest.

As you can see Shropshire made a big move in the middle of the race, covering three furlongs in 32.81s, 0.08s quicker than his nearest rival. Normally this type of mid-race move would be good enough to win but the Stewards’ Cup is run at such a searing gallop you need to hold something in reserve.

Unfortunately, I think the jockey went too early and had nothing left to fight off the 7f horses like Imperial Guest and Hawkeyethenoo. 

Having already won at 6f this year I don’t think the distance lost Shropshire the race it was the pace. It therefore makes perfect sense to up him in trip slightly for the 4.05 Doncaster a race run over 6f110y.

It is full of 7f specialists who don’t have the early speed to put Shropshire into crisis at the end of his race like at Goodwood. He should be able to keep tabs on the leaders without using up too much petrol. We know he has a potent turn of foot as the sectional timings prove.

Another factor is the vastly experienced Johnny Murtagh takes the ride from apprentice Matthew Lawson. In theory, he should be a better judge of pace, even though it is harsh to blame the young jockey for the loss at Goodwood.

These sectional times offer a tantalising glimpse of the future in form study. Lets hope they find a winner with Shropshire at 8/1 (William Hill).

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