Doncaster Tips: Dream Vale

When looking for value I approach 2-year-old races in a similar way to ones containing older horses. I’m looking for biases in previous performances that may have masked their true ability.

Dream Vale is the rank outsider for the 1.15 Doncaster but I suspect she is a bit better than the bare form.

At Newmarket she raced in a competitive class 2 handicap that was dominated by a strong draw bias. She was one of six runners who made their way up the far side. If you look at their subsequent performances it is clear how disadvantaged they were.

The first thing to point out is that Dream Vale was injured on her next start therefore we should ignore he Racing Post Rating. Excluding her from the analysis, each runner improved on average by 11lbs on their next start. It should also be noted that although Rio’s Pearl didn’t improve her rating, she did win her next start.

There is a chance Dream Vale could still be outclassed but having run to a mark in the mid-70s earlier this season she could outperform her price of 40/1 (Paddy Power). She rates a good value each-way bet with ¼ odds for a top-4 finish.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – Paddy Power
Back Dream Vale with Paddy Power as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.