Ayr Tips Elusive Bonus

There are mixed messages coming from Ayr this morning. The official going is ‘soft’ after 4mm of rain fell in the last 24 hours and more is expected during the morning. However, the GoingStick reading taken at 6.15am is 8.4, which is approaching good ground.

Normally I’d side with the ‘science’ of the GoingStick but with rain constantly falling, if it isn’t soft ground now, it soon might be.

The reason I’m so concerned about the ground is because of one horse – Elusive Bonus.

Last season her record on ground described as good to soft or slower was 7911121. Her winning spurt meant she started this season rated 76 but forced to race on fast ground all summer she’s fallen down the handicap and races off a generous looking mark of 64.

David O’Meara’s filly hasn’t shown much recently but her last six starts have all come on good to firm ground, which patently doesn’t suit her.

There is a danger that she is also completely out of form and the going is just a smokescreen, but she showed bright pace two starts back at Beverley before hanging, possibly feeling the effects of the ground.

Last season she won by seven lengths over course and distance on heavy ground. Back on her favourite surface, she will be hard to beat at 11/2 (BetVictor) if reproducing that performance.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – BetVictor
Back Elusive Bonus with BetVictor as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.