1st Oct 2016 | Horse Racing
Redcar Double: Anieres Boy & Crombay
Finished fifth and sixth at Ayr, fading after setting an overly strong pace. Smaller fields and quicker ground plays to their strengths.
It’s not often that I put up a double but this pair are a related contingency and one result will influence the other.
Anieres Boy and Crombay finished fifth and sixth at Ayr and go in the two 5f sprints finishing the card at Redcar.
The key to their future performance is that Ayr race and the way they ran. The pair raced down the middle setting an overly strong pace they were never able to sustain. Both had finishing speeds of under-100%, which means they were finishing slower than par for the track.
A combination of soft ground and a big field made front-running difficult at Ayr’s Western Meeting. For those three days, the winner was on average 2.73 lengths behind at the 3f pole, compared to 2.22 lengths for the rest of the season. It meant that winners at the Western Meeting were coming from further back, as you would expect with bigger fields.
Both Anieres Boy (6.05) and Crombay (5.35) have won by dominating smaller fields on faster ground both of which they will get at Ayr. By getting 1/5 odds top-3 if more than 8 runners stand their ground, we have a good each-way double at 50/1.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 08:19 1st Oct, 2016 but subject to change
