Ayr Tip: Levitate

The 3.55 at Ayr is a perfect illustration of how a draw bias can appear to switch race to race. Having tipped a high drawn horse in the first sprint, I am opting for a low drawn horse in the Ayr Bronze Cup. The reality is that a pace bias is often more of an issue than a draw bias. The majority of the pace is drawn low, with Amenable the most likely front-runner berthed in stall 10.

Trainer Dandy Nicholls runs six in the race, drawn in stalls: 2-6-9-10-12-14. It is no coincidence that they are all drawn low. Amenable’s jockey will have instructions to go a good gallop to favour Dandy Nicholls’ group of horses. Drawn in stall 11, Levitate can benefit from this pace bias.

Bought out of Sir Michael Stoute’s yard for the princely sum of £38,000 ,big things are expected of this horse. In his three runs for new trainer Alan McCabe he has finished 1-7-11, suggesting that the price tag wasn’t entirely fanciful. His last run at Doncaster can be ignored. He made the running into a fierce headwind and stood no chance. The first five finishers were all held up, proving he had an impossible task.

Two runs ago he showed huge amounts of promise in a competitive three-year-old handicap at Newmarket. When making his run with a furlong to go a rival horse took his space, forcing Levitate to check his run. He was so badly hampered the only way he could have passed the wall of horses was to mimic his name. Eventually switched, he finished strongly but by then the race was over.

I am slightly concerned that the horse can hit a flat spot in his races, but at 33/1 it is worth backing him on the promise he has shown for his new trainer.

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