Wigan Start Run For Survival

Lost in the controversy of Callum McManaman’s tackle on Massadio Haidara, Wigan grabbed three crucial points against Newcastle last time out. It keeps them in touch with the sides above the relegation zone and perhaps signals the start of a timely resurgence.

Wigan Rally During Run-In

During the last five seasons Wigan have shown a marked improvement when faced with the prospect of relegation. On average, they win 0.37 more points in the last 10 games of the season, compared to the preceding 28. That is a 37% improvement.

This offers us a betting edge if the bookmakers haven’t adjusted their prices by a similar percentage.

Having raised their level of performance in previous seasons the big question is whether Wigan can do it again?

Alternative Form Table

Using the criteria set out in our ‘Shots On Target’ feature, each week we analyse the recent set of Premier League fixtures to see if the scorelines were a fair reflection of the games.

Based on their performances another great escape looks plausible. Wigan top our alternative form table, meriting 6 points more than they have actually got. A Wigan rally could simply be a correction in scorelines, as they get the results their play deserves.

The other key to the equation is Roberto Martinez. The Spaniard has experienced relegation battles on numerous occasions and is never afraid to change his side or tactics in search of an edge. Last season he surprised opponents by switching to a back-three; dropping Ali Al-Habsi could be another turning point.

At the end of January we noted how Al-Habsi’s performances were on a downward trend and he was eventually replaced by Joel Robles for the FA Cup tie against Everton. The young goalkeeper retained his place for the Newcastle game and having won both matches, he could be the small detail that secures Premier League football for another year.

Wigan are a best price 17/20 (Ladbrokes) to stay in the Premier League, based on recent history that doesn’t seem like a crazy bet.