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23rd Sep 2013 | Football

Was Di Canio Short Changed?

We examine Sunderland’s performance by numbers to see if Paulo Di Canio deserved the sack.

Paulo Di Canio’s tenure at Sunderland was always likely to be a combustible affair but putting aside personality, how did his team perform on the pitch.

Sunderland Shot Statistics
sunderland shot stats
In 12 matches, it is hard to say the Italian had a positive impact. Sunderland registered fewer shots per game, had less of the ball and scored fewer points. In mitigation, this is a very small sample size but the signs were ominous.

Performance Judged Results
sunderland performances
Adjusted scores if every 3.6 shots on target resulted in a goal

If we use shots on target as a proxy for performance, the conclusion is equally damning. Sunderland only generated enough shots on target to win two games under Paulo Di Canio. On performances alone, Sunderland deserved 8 points from 12 matches, when in fact they got 9.

The big caveat to this analysis is the sample size. Twelve matches is a very short timeframe and a couple of good performances could have turned everything around but it seems Ellis Short was unwilling to take the risk.

Odds correct at time of publishing: 13:44 23rd Sep, 2013 but subject to change

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