Valencia v Chelsea

Juan Mata will be centre of attention at the Mestalla on Wednesday night; the £23m summer signing spent four successful years at Valencia after graduating from the Real Madrid academy. He has vowed not to celebrate if he scores on his return, but I expect his new team-mates to be enjoying a hard fought victory by the end of the night.

The statistics are all in favour of the 2009-10 Premier League champions. Chelsea are unbeaten over four matches against Valencia (two wins, two draws) although the personnel has changed significantly since their last meeting in 2007-08. The Blues have won both their previous trips to the Mestalla by a 2-1 scoreline and I’m backing the same again at best odds of 9/1 with Bluesquare.

Abramovich’s side are unbeaten in six trips to Spain, although four of those games ended in draws. Valencia recently held Barcelona to 2-2 on their own patch and it is therefore tempting to back the draw here at 23/10 with Coral. However, Chelsea have enough quality to shade this encounter. The hosts have only won two of their previous nine Champions League matches at the Mestalla and they showed their vulnerability at the weekend in losing 1-0 at Sevilla.

For all the talk of the Premier League being a two-horse race between the Manchester sides, Chelsea are still a formidable force at home and abroad. They sit only three points off the top of the table and that only after a pretty commendable performance in defeat at Old Trafford. They are grinding out results, which makes them a decent team to back for scoreline betting. A high scoring win looks very unlikely so we can limit down our possibilities with confidence.

It’s tempting to take the 10/3 on Villas-Boas’s side claiming a one-goal margin of victory but since I can only imagine 1-0 or 2-1 there’s greater value in a longer odds precision punt. Chelsea have found clean sheets hard to come by so far this season with none in their last five league games. With that in mind I favour the 2-1 away win at market-leading odds of 9/1.