16th Oct 2012 | Football
Testing Fifa’s World Rankings – Part 2
We continue our investigation into Fifa’s football world rankings and whether they can point us towards value in the World Cup Qualifiers?
Last Friday we pitted Fifa against the bookmakers, comparing the official world rankings with the odds for the European World Cup Qualifiers. The results were mixed. Fifa’s world rankings pointed us towards the pricing error on Georgia, who earned a draw in Finland, but the bookmakers cleaned up when Austria failed to beat a Kazakhstan side ranked 88 places below them.
The following table compares Fifa’s world rankings. A positive number means the home team are the higher ranked nation and a negative number means the away team are the higher ranked nation.
E.g. Portugal are ranked 114 places above Northern Ireland.
All odds in decimal format.
Ukraine poor value for a home win
The most even match according to Fifa’s world rankings is the contest between Ukraine and Montenegro. The teams are separated by only two places in the world rankings but Ukraine are the strong favourites, with the bookies perhaps overplaying their home advantage.
Minnows too short
The Faroe Islands and Andorra look short in the betting to win their home matches even at odds of 10/1 and 12/1 respectively. They face opponents ranked more than 130 places above them. When this scenario appeared last week, the Faroe Islands were 25/1. Do they deserve to be half the price just 4 days later?
Odds correct at time of publishing: 09:45 16th Oct, 2012 but subject to change
